Obama caught up in tensions between Israel and Iran. The Americans fear Iranian nuclear reach Israel and the Middle East. As if he did not have enough puzzles to solve, now the Iranian nuclear issue returns to haunt the days of President Obama. After trying to stop the race for the atom’s military regime of the ayatollahs a strengthening of international sanctions, Barack Obama to admit his impotence. If one believes the new IAEA report, he has managed to stop the Iranians either by negotiation or by measures to strangle them economically.
As a result, Israeli leaders revive the rumors of military strikes to halt nuclear program before it’s too late, leaving Obama stuck between two options nightmarish. “We are faced with two unappetizing choices well: military action risky and potentially catastrophic, or learn to live with an Iranian bomb that could reshape the balance of power in the Middle East dramatically,” says the expert Aaron Miller in Foreign Policy.
Official in Washington, all options are on the table. The Americans fear Iranians nuclear reach Israel and the Middle East. But experts note, the last thing the Obama administration needs now is a scenario in which Israel would strike the sites suspected Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians could block the Strait of Hormuz, multiplying the price of oil and carrying a heavy blow to the U.S. economy. Tehran could use its long arm to destabilize Iraq when the boys leave the country or launch a third intifada via Hamas. “A strike would legitimize Iran in the Middle East,” warns Miller, who believes it would not solve anything, because “it would be like cutting grass, ready to push. In the short term, such an attack would weaken drastically the Iranian democratic opposition would be forced to join the regime against external aggression,” said Mohsen Sazegara, a former Iranian leader exiled in Washington.
Such a scenario would be even more damaging than the “sanctions do their work in Iran, where the regime is weakened by an economy in deep recession, civil strife and population, 92%, does not want this power” he said. This is why “the Americans will do everything to implement new sanctions at the UN, with the French and the British,” says Sazegara. “It might work, because, given the climate warrior and rumors of strikes, everyone’s interest to increase pressure on Iran,” he said.
What will happen if these ultimate sanctions fail? America could it persuade its ally Israel to wait? Thursday, Aaron Miller, a former negotiator for Republican and Democratic Administrations, confided his pessimism. He explained that Bush could stop today its Israeli ally highlighting its new plan for sanctions against the Iranian central bank or the oil complex.
“But in eight months or a year, I can not imagine an American president can say no to Israeli Prime Minister will explain that it is time to strike. This would be a concern yes, but a yes nonetheless. We can look to live with an Iranian bomb, not the Israelis.“